Paul:
Looking at this summer’s would-be blockbusters, I only see two real sure-thing titles.  But while this leaves a lot of question marks to those trying to predict which titles will hit big, it also leaves a lot of room to predict some potential sleeper movies to come out of nowhere, given good word of mouth and the right marketing campaign. I’m almost sure I’ll regret these hasty decisions sometime around mid-May, but that’s just part of the game, isn’t it?

3. TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN (June 24)



Paul:
Remember those two sure things I mentioned before? Here’s one of them: let’s not underestimate the box office prospects of Transformers, a mistake that was made by many Hollywood insiders prior to the release of the first Transformers movie. Yes, the Michael Bay name didn’t give many people hope, but audiences turned out in droves all the same thanks to a combination of eighties nostalgia and the desire to watch giant robots kicking ass. If anything, the sequel promises even more action and destruction, hopefully with less dopey humor getting in the way. Getting released just before the July 4 weekend can only help its prospects.

Nick:
Michael Bay’s Transformers made $319 million domestically in 2007. And unless Tony Scott’s The Taking of Pelham 123 (June 12) has legs, or Michael Mann’s Public Enemies (July 1) becomes a runaway smash, there’s little slam-bang competition surrounding Fallen’s June 24th release. Consequently, there’s no reason to suspect that this more-is-better sequel – featuring a wider roster of Autobots and Decepticons, as well as mega-hottie Megan Fox – won’t be greeted with massive box-office enthusiasm.

Scott:
I don’t want this to be true, but I have to be a realist when doing these projections. Otherwise I’d have the new Jarmusch movie in this slot, and that ain’t gonna happen. Bay + LaBeouf = big box office once again.

Andrew:
Blechh.

2. STAR TREK (May 8)



Scott:
The sequel is already in the works, so you know Paramount is feeling bullish. More than four decades worth of built-in fan base can’t hurt, but even non-Trekkies are likely to be swept up by the hype, which may dwarf even William Shatner’s ego by the time this is released.

Andrew:
I noted this as one of the films I was most excited to see in 2009, even though I fully expect to be disappointed and I’m way too old for this kind of nonsense. But being a Star Trek fan is like being Catholic...it gets into your system early, and once it’s there, it’s there for good, resurfacing when you least expect it, flying in the face of all the logic and common sense you otherwise thought you had.

Nick:
Trekkies (or Trekkers, or whatever they want to be called) will turn out in droves for J.J. Abrams’ reimagining of their beloved series. So too will the uninitiated, thanks to the Mission: Impossible III director’s decision to place as great an emphasis on breathless, epic action as on franchise minutiae.

Paul:
Will old-school Trekkers be down with a reboot of their beloved franchise with an almost entirely new cast?  Will non-Trek fans even care? And why do the studios continue to release their big-budget movies in the second weekend of May (a.k.a. the Speed Racer weekend), which has consistently proven to be a box-office dead zone?

1. HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE (July 15)



Paul:
Here’s that other sure thing. I eventually decided to make Potter my top pick for several reasons. First, the Potter-philes have been salivating over this latest installment ever since the last movie two summers ago, and the ballyhoo over the release date (pushed back from last November) has only heightened their excitement. Secondly, Half-Blood Prince appears to be the most action-packed entry in the series to date, which should be enough to bring out the more casual fans of the series who might otherwise have waited for DVD. And finally, there’s the mid-July release date, which proved so lucrative for The Dark Knight last year. With relatively little competition in the surrounding weeks, Potter should rule the latter part of the summer, and if I was a Warner exec, I’d try my damnedest to secure this weekend every year.

Nick:
It was delayed from last Fall to July 15, meaning anticipation is high. And it’s the installment in which a key figure bites the supernatural bullet. Both of those facts (as well as a PG rating) should make this sixth Harry Potter film gargantuan.

Scott:
The Potter freaks were hopping mad when Warner Bros. delayed this release last fall, but let’s not kid ourselves; all will be forgiven when it finally rolls into theaters.

Andrew:
I haven’t read the books, but I’m devoted to the film series...and I’m a grown-ass man. For my fellow adults who keep sincerely trying to convince me the books themselves are the sorts of things that adults should actually be reading, and especially for all the kids out there who grew up on J.K. Rowling’s really pretty awesome juggernaut -- I’m still totally digging the gay Dumbledore thing, for instance -- NOT seeing Half-Blood isn’t even an option. Plus, Emma Watson is no longer jailbait, so I’m now officially allowed to look at her boobies.

Click Here For The Hits (Part One), The Bombs (Part Three), The Toss-Ups (Part Four) and The Honorable Mentions (Parts Five & Six) 

Contributors: Paul Clark, Nick Schager, Scott Von Doviak, Andrew Osborne