Hooksexup’s 2012 Oscar Nomination Scorecard
So there's this movie awards show you might've heard of...
By Jett Wells
The nominations for the 2012 Oscars come out on January 24th. Now, given that the Golden Globes and flurry of other non-Oscar awards shows act as a barometer for the Academy’s picks, So, using our elaborate and arcane methodology (tea leaves were stared at; goats were sacrificed), we've assembled a scorecard for the nominees and eventual winners. Plus, just for fun, we're giving props to the movies that should win in an alternative universe where petty Oscar laws don’t apply. Oh, and don’t forget Painful Omissions: the deserving movies that will get flat-out ignored. (Also, we’d like to point out that Best Director nearly always lines up with Best Picture, but out of respect for arbitrary traditions, we're including it anyway.)
BEST ACTOR
PROJECTED NOMINEES:
Brad Pitt, Moneyball — Yes, he’s really pretty, but he’s done great work. His performance in Tree of Life was more ambitious, but he’ll probably get the nod for the Academy-friendly Moneyball.
George Clooney, The Descendants — Clooney gets a lot of flack for just playing “George Clooney” repeatedly, but The Descendants gave him a deeper character and as a result, a better performance, than most of his roles.
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar — Leo's turn as Hoover was probably the only good thing that came out of the movie, but the Academy loves Clint Eastwood and historical dramas.
Michael Fassbender, Shame — An intense performance, if one somewhat tempered by the fact that all people could talk about was his nakedness.
Jean Dujardin, The Artist — Hollywood is drunk on Harvey Weinstein’s Kool-Aid, but Dujardin genuinely deserves this nod deserves this nod for his precise evocation of the silent-movie acting style.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman, damnit! He’s never even been nominated!
WHO WILL WIN: Brad Pitt
PAINFUL OMISSIONS: Ryan Gosling (Drive), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), and Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
PROJECTED NOMINEES:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners — Plummer has been the home-run name all year. His role in Beginners, as an elderly gay man with cancer, practically screamed “Oscar!” It’s easier to just call this his lifetime achievement award.
Albert Brooks, Drive —Who said funny guys couldn’t be scary villains? Brooks is a serious underdog, but it would be nice for him to get nominated, at least.
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn — Branagh is a solid Academy favorite, and a biopic/drama like My Week is a winning combination for the Academy.
Jonah Hill, Moneyball — Who would’ve seen this coming after Superbad? Congrats, Jonah. Just don’t quit comedy altogether.
Nick Nolte, Warrior — Nolte is impressive as a old drunk of a father/cage-wrestling coach. Grizzled actor + role as old drunk + redemptive sports story = Academy catnip.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Albert Brooks
WHO WILL WIN: Christopher Plummer
PAINFUL OMISSIONS: Seth Rogen (50/50), Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris), and Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)
BEST ACTRESS
PROJECTED NOMINEES:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady — This isn’t even really that close — it’s been a slam-dunk since the summer.
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn — Williams is on a nice roll now, and it’s likely she’ll win some day, but not against Streep.
Viola Davis, The Help — Davis made a name for herself after Doubt, and it’ll be nice to see her garner more lead roles down the road, but the field’s just too stacked this year for the embattled Help to come out on top.
Charlize Theron, Young Adult — Young Adult was an excellent vehicle for Theron to remind us that she's still a top-notch actress, but her role was far too dark and unlikable, and the film too ambiguous to garner a win.
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs — This role had Oscar bait written all over it, but the film hasn't gotten much love.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep
WHO WILL WIN: Meryl Streep
PAINFUL OMISSIONS: Rooney Mara (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Olivia Colman (Tyrannosaur), and Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PROJECTED NOMINEES:
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants — Woodley stood out as a salty teenager in Alexander Payne’s comedy. We’ll see her again, but it’s doubtful she’ll win for this one.
Octavia Spencer, The Help — Spencer’s counterpart Jessica Chastain, is probably also in the running, but I’m giving the edge to Spencer.
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids — She had a great year and she’s still riding the wave into 2012 (having recently sold another television show) but the Academy will probably neglect a comic role in favor of more serious fare.
Carey Mulligan, Shame — This is probably a reach, since Mulligan failed to get nods from major predictors like the Golden Globes, but it’d be nice to see her nominated for this or Drive.
Berenice Bejo, The Artist — Bejo is a relative newcomer, but so was Gwyneth Paltrow when she won for Shakespeare in Love, and what do the two have in common? Harvey Weinstein.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Melissa McCarthy
WHO WILL WIN: Octavia Spencer
PAINFUL OMISSIONS: none
Commentarium (13 Comments)
I have to disagree with a lot of the "should win"s and the painfully omitted. Sorry, Bridesmaids does not deserve oscar attention. I personally think Michael Fassbender should win best actor, out of the actors nominated that I've seen, his performance was easily the most intense and just overall incredible.
Michael Fassbender was mesmerizing, he deserved every award.
Reading this makes me want to listen to this: https://www.nytimesknownow.com/index.php/beyond-the-red-carpet-oscar-talk...
No love for Take Shelter or Michael Shannon? C'moooooon. I can see the film being overlooked, but Shannon's performance is more than worthy of a nomination.
THANK YOU! Michael Shannon gave THE BEST male performance this year and he's being ignored. This plus Take Shelter as a whole being left out AND Terrence Malick possibly being left out of Best Director contention reaffirms that these awards are a joke.
Thank you for including Bennett Miller on your Best Director predictions list. I really want him to be nominated - he's probably my favorite director working in film today, even after 2 movies, and I fear a big disappointment, especially after he was overlooked by the Globes and DGAs. The Golden Globe snub didn't bother me as much because he managed to get his Capote nomination in 2006 without any help from the Golden Globes, but that year he at least got a DGA nod to help his odds. I'm still holding out hope!
The incessant Drive whine already sounds just like a broken power steering pump on a 1973 Malibu.
You include Original Screenplay, but not Screenplay Adaptation? What are your picks in that category, painful omissions, etc.?
Really happy to see 50/50 in most of your "Should win" and "Painfully omitted" categories. One of the most criminally overlooked (critically as much as commercially) movies of the year. I thought it was honestly the funniest AND most moving film I've seen in 2011, simultaneously.
Agreed. But people don't like it because it reflects the realities of life just a little too much...when shit gets real, people run.
Terry Malick not even a 'Painful Omission' as best director?
Well then, doesn't everyone feel a little silly here after the nominations came out today? Malick does gets love, Brooks and Fassbender get none and Hugo is apparently not just for the kiddies.
Not enough people saw Shame I guess. Also, 50/50 seriously? Yes, strong, but I can not take anything Seth Rogen is in too seriously.
Oh my god, Bridesmaids does NOT deserve Oscar attention whatsoever. I understand that the academy doesn't give certain types of movies a fair shake (sci-fi/comedies), but Bridesmaids is most definitely not a credit to their genre. It SUCKED in my opinion. So the academy is saying that the fat chick, out of ALL the movies that came out this past year, potentially gave the BEST performance for a supporting actress?! I think not.
Now you say something