And so we've come to yet another crossroads in this campaign. Today's the day that four key states vote: Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Two are no brainers (Obama = VT, Clinton = RI) and two are toss-ups, tied when you even out the polls, although the most recent numbers point to a clear favorite to come up on top today.
Here's a rundown on the recent news so you can more expeditiously return to reading about elfin porn:
Ohio: A must win state for Hillary. She's ahead by between 4 and 16 points, depending on which idiotic pollster you take seriously.
Texas: A must win state for Hillary. She will likely lose either the popular vote or the delegate race or both. Either way, expect the media to focus solely on the popular vote winner, even though the delegate count is much more important. (To explain: like everything else in Texas, the electoral system is crazy. There's a regular popular vote, plus a caucus, and the caucus winner will probably get the most delegates out of the state. Lost yet? Obama will win the caucus vote, but the popular vote is going to go down to the wire, like New Mexico did, and we may not even know the winner until tomorrow. Right now, most polls show a narrow lead for Obama, which should translate to something of a draw in the numbers, but a chance for Hillary's spinmeister's to shoot off a press release about "momentum.")
Vermont: Obama is expected to win easily here. Neither campaign is putting much effort into the state besides a few campaign offices.
Rhode Island: Clinton will win by between four and nine percent.
Unless the media spins the story from today as being a Clinton comeback, it will remain nearly impossible for Clinton to roll back toward the nomination. Obama is just too far ahead in the delegate count.
It's hard to fathom a more important political story today, but the trial of Tony Rezko may be right up there. Reports of Obama's involvement with Rezko, who is under indictment in Illinois for some good ol' extortion, money laundering, and fraud, could be very damaging to his campaign if the Senator can be linked to any wrongdoing. From yesterday's Times (UK):
Buried on page 59 of the indictment is a reference to one of many alleged kickbacks on a state contract that appears to have ended up as a $10,000 donation to an unnamed "political candidate".
The kickback was allegedly arranged by Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a Syrian immigrant who became a powerful political fixer in Chicago. The "political candidate" who benefited from the $10,000 has been identified as Barack Obama, the Democratic contender calling for "change we can believe in" in the presidential race, who is said to be a longtime friend of Mr Rezko. If that does wind up to be the case, with Obama actually being named as the actual "political candidate", it will be a political earthquake.
[Photo: New York Times]