The Presidential election of 1884 was a huge turning point in American politics. Among its many highlights: the vaulting of Grover Cleveland to the White House, the first Democrat to assume that position since before the Civil War.
Most importantly, there are several eerie parallels between '84 and '08 (2008, that is) that should make Obama, McCain, and even Clinton stop to think...
At the beginning of the 1884 campaign cycle (which was mercifully shorter and without primaries back then), President Chester Arthur (remember him?) was looking to coast to an easy re-election victory. After all, he was a Republican President in an era of Lincoln worship. But, as the Republican National Convention approached in June of that year, another Republican leaped onto the national scene. His name was James G. Blaine and he had the support of delegates from major "swing states" like Pennsylvania and even Southern states the party never, ever won.
The problem was, Blaine's past and experience had been questioned and the faint whiff of scandal followed him throughout the campaign. At the convention, Congressman William McKinley from Ohio tried to keep order, while New York State Assemblyman Theodore Roosevelt waged an insurgent campaign on behalf of independent-minded Senator Edmunds of Vermont.
At the convention, Roosevelt's bitter battle nearly fractured the party-- one delegate commented he'd been at the birth and now the death of the Republican Party. In the end, James G. Blaine defeated the sitting President for the nomination-- something attempted disastrously in modern times by Reagan ('76) and Ted Kennedy ('80.) In this case, as in those, the Party ended up losing the Presidential election.
But here's where it gets interesting:
The Democrats chose relative longshot New York Governor Grover Cleveland to head their ticket. Immediately, Roosevelt and other Republican stalwarts spread the (true) rumor that Cleveland had father a child out of wedlock with a widow. (Cleveland was a bachelor at the time and married a 21-year old in the White House.) Miraculously, this curse did not work, particularly since Cleveland's campaign merely shrugged at the charges and moved on.
Meanwhile, Blaine was digging his political grave. A true October surprise-- on October 29th, exactly one week prior to the election, Blaine was in New York for a campaign event. According to historian Edmund Morris:
"[A] garrulous Presbyterian minister, with Blaine standing at his side, publicly accused the Democratic party of representing 'rum, Romanism, and rebellion.' The candidate, who was only half-listening, did not react... and therefore seemed to condone it. [The phrase was reported to] Cleveland headquarters, just one block away.
Within hours, it had been telegraphed to every Democratic newspaper in the country. Headlines and handbills amplified the insult a millionfold. Overnight, Blaine's support among anti-prohibitionists, Catholics, and Southerners shrank away...
Grover Cleveland became the nation's first Democratic President in a quarter of a century..."
If you haven't figured it out already, reverse the Party affiliations and you have the 2008 Presidential campaign, from one perspective, up until now. But there's more to it than that:
Meanwhile, future President Teddy Roosevelt was thinking beyond that year's election... to the next one. Despite being a staunch supporter of the reform candidate and a very vocal hater of all that his party's nominee stood for, nonetheless, Roosevelt campaigned for him. In the short run, he disgraced his good name among the press and members of his own party who had backed the Senator from Vermont. But Roosevelt was one shrewd young dude:
He did not realize his luck, but a Republican victory might have destroyed his chances of ever becoming President. The grateful Blaine would have offered him a government post... Roosevelt [would be] associated with the corrupt Old Guard...
...while, had he had backed the Democrat who ended up winning, he would have been resented by his own Party. In other words
a Republican defeat was the best thing that could have happened to Roosevelt in 1884.
Just 17 years later, Teddy would become the youngest-ever President of the United States. Hillary Clinton could learn a lot from her history book... and so could John McCain, if he plays his cards right... after all, all Obama haters still talk about is a controversial Christian pastor who insulted their patriotism and beliefs...
To be continued...