This will be the first in a series of periodic updates on the electoral college, the only "polls" that matter. (Don't listen to any idiot media person who says "Obama is leading by ###" because it's totally irrelevant and a blatant lie most of the time, since those numbers usually come from a survey of "registered, likely voters" across the nation, which is different from the electoral college. Got it?)
Anyway, let's look at who's really ahead right now...
Dick Morris, ex-Clinton kingmaker and now right-wing operative and FoxNews buffoon, is the country's most consistent pollmaster. Here's what he has to say about the race, as it stands today. (By the way, you don't have to read all this; just scan and jump to the bottom if you'd like.)
| STATE |
VOTE |
00, 04 RESULT |
'08 PREDICTION |
| ALABAMA |
EV 9 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| ALASKA |
EV 9 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| ARIZONA |
EV 10 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| ARKANSAS |
EV 6 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| CALIFORNIA |
EV 55 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| COLORADO |
EV 9 |
B,B |
TOSS UP |
| CONNECTICUT |
EV 7 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| DELAWARE |
EV 3 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| D.C. |
EV 3 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| FLORIDA |
EV 27 |
B,B |
TOSS UP |
| GEORGIA |
EV 15 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| HAWAII |
EV 4 |
G,B |
LEAN OBAMA |
| IDAHO |
EV 4 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| ILLINOIS |
EV 21 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| INDIANA |
EV 11 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| INDIANA |
EV 11 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| IOWA |
EV 7 |
G,B |
LEAN OBAMA |
| KANSAS |
EV 6 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| KENTUCKY |
EV 8 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| LOUISIANA |
EV 9 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| MAINE |
EV 4 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| MARYLAND |
EV 10 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| MASSACHUSETTS |
EV 12 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| MICHIGAN |
EV 17 |
G,K |
LEAN OBAMA |
| MINNESOTA |
EV 10 |
G,K |
LEAN OBAMA |
| MISSISSIPPI |
EV 6 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| MISSOURI |
EV 11 |
B,B |
TOSS UP |
| MONTANA |
EV 3 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| NEBRASKA |
EV 5 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| NEVADA |
EV 5 |
B,B |
LEAN OBAMA |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE |
EV 4 |
B,K |
LEAN OBAMA |
| NEW JERSEY |
EV 15 |
G,B |
OBAMA |
| NEW MEXICO |
EV 5 |
G,B |
LEAN OBAMA |
| NEW YORK |
EV 31 |
G,B |
OBAMA |
| NORTH CAROLINA |
EV 15 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| NORTH DAKOTA |
EV 3 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| OHIO |
EV 20 |
B,B |
TOSS UP |
| OKLAHOMA |
EV 7 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| OREGON |
EV 7 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| PENNSYLVANIA |
EV 21 |
G,K |
LEAN OBAMA |
| RHODE ISLAND |
EV 4 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| SOUTH CAROLINA |
EV 8 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| SOUTH DAKOTA |
EV 3 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| TENNESSEE |
EV 11 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| TEXAS |
EV 30 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| UTAH |
EV 5 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| VERMONT |
EV 3 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| VIRGINIA |
EV 13 |
B,B |
LEAN MCCAIN |
| WASHINGTON |
EV 11 |
G,K |
OBAMA |
| WEST VIRGINIA |
EV 5 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
| WISCONSIN |
EV 10 |
G,K |
LEAN OBAMA |
| WYOMING |
EV 3 |
B,B |
MCCAIN |
McCain Total = 202
LEAN MCAIN = 72
MCCAIN = 130
Obama Total = 269
OBAMA = 186
LEAN OBAMA = 83
TOSS UP = 67
To make this easier, let's look at his "Toss Ups" and make some educated guesses to get our final tally.
COLORADO: Colorado is hosting the Democratic National Convention, which could both hurt and boost Obama's chances (for example, we recall a lot of Bush Republicans hating their candidate after their New York neighborhoods were turned upside down four years ago.) Nonetheless, let's give this one to Obama, since the state is moving toward the Democratic column in general. Obama +9.
FLORIDA: This one's easy, especially if McCain picks Governor Charlie Crist, as is our prediction. We give it to him anyway. McCain +27.
MISSOURI: McCain should win this one in a squeaker, although we'd love to see a competitive race in Missouri, which would give the state some much-needed financial attention. If the race were held today, we'd say: McCain +11.
OHIO: As in 2004, it's going to come down to Ohio. Obama and McCain both know this-- but how well do their campaigns? Kerry could've called in the UN Fraud Inspec-- nah, he wouldn't have the guts to do that, and it might've backfired. Anyway, we would put our money on Obama this time-- there is no Republican in power in the state that could send broken or insufficient numbers of voting machines to black (i.e. Democratic) neighborhoods to doom the Dem candidate. It's a popular Governor on the Blue Team this time around, and he'll make sure this fight is fair. That means Obama +20.
By this rationale:
MCCAIN WINS 240 ELECTORAL VOTES
OBAMA WINS 294 ELECTORAL VOTES
And if Ohio goes to McCain:
McCain wins 260 Electoral Votes
Obama wins 274 Electoral Votes
Wait, you're saying, I just contradicted myself. In a way, no-- as I said, it will come down to Ohio. Obama must win Ohio because he will most likely lose in at least one of the states we have given him. It's just too early in the race and he's coming off a huge bump in polling, following Hillary's withdrawal. In other words, bad news for McCain, although he knows that it's easier to pull ahead than to stay on top for four more months.
Via Dick Morris.