BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
And the nominees are...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
The Reader - David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
Paul Clark Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s the Best Picture nominee, so it’ll win here too.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ugh.
Leonard Pierce Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s a good rule of thumb that the Screenplay Oscars go to the movies that deserve a Best Picture nomination but aren’t going to get one. This year, the screenplay adaptation category mostly consists of movies that, deserving or not, have already received Best Picture noms, leaving the popular and critically acclaimed (and I'd argue overhyped) Slumdog Millionaire to take home the Screenplay Oscar as a consolation prize because it’s not going to get anything else.
Should Win: John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Nick Schager Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Rolling, rolling, rolling, keep that Slumdog rolling…
Sarah Clyne Sundberg Predicts: The Reader
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
And the nominees are...
Wall-E - Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky - Mike Leigh
Frozen River - Courtney Hunt
In Bruges - Martin McDonagh
Milk - Dustin Lance Black
Paul Clark Predicts: Milk
Wall-E is more a director’s movie than a writer’s movie, and the other three nominees will split the indie vote. So this category will be Milk’s best shot at a win.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: Milk
I’m thinking this is where Milk gets the love it’s denied in the Best Picture and Best Director races, but Wall-E could be a spoiler.
Leonard Pierce Predicts: In Bruges
This one’s quite a bit more open, because only one film is up for a Best Picture Oscar. Milk might seem to be the favorite, but a case can certainly be made for the otherwise-ignored Happy-Go-Lucky and the cult favorite In Bruges. Normally I’d guess that Wall-E would be a lock, but the presence of the animation category might jeopardize its chances. This one could be one of the tightest calls of the year, like I know what I’m talking about.
Should Win: Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon, Wall-E
Will Win: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Nick Schager Predicts: Milk
This may be the tightest race, since it’s likely the only award that both Milk and Happy-Go-Lucky have a legit shot at winning. Given Sally Hawkins’ egregious snub in the Best Actress category, the Academy must not dig Leigh’s latest, so Dustin Lance Black should be at the podium come Oscar night.
Sarah Clyne Sundberg Predicts: In Bruges
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: Milk
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THERE WILL BE MILK!
BEST ART DIRECTION
And the nominees are...
Changeling – James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
The Dark Knight – Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess – Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road – Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt
Paul Clark Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Here’s where Button starts ruling. With its ornate period settings, Duchess could surprise, but I’d say Button has this by virtue of sheer scale, spanning continents, and decades’ worth of sets.
Andrew Osborne, Nick Shager & Scott Von Doviak Predict: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
And the nominees are...
Changeling – Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight – Wally Pfister
The Reader – Chris Menges, Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire – Anthony Dod Mantle
Paul Clark Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Anthony Dod Mantle, you are a sinner. But on Sunday, February 22, you’ll be a sinner with an Oscar.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Nick Shager Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: NO CONSENSUS!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
And the nominees are...
Australia – Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Jacqueline West
The Duchess – Michael O'Connor
Milk – Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road – Albert Wolsky
Paul Clark Predicts: The Duchess
It’s got the frilliest costumes, which is as good an indicator as any, I suppose.
Andrew Osborne and Nick Schager Predict: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sarah Clyne Sundberg Predicts: Milk
I want Milk to win, because why can't costumes from a recent era ever win this category, dammit? But I fear this award may go to The Duchess.
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
BEST FILM EDITING
And the nominees are...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
The Dark Knight – Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon – Mike Hill, Daniel P. Hanley
Milk – Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire – Chris Dickens
Paul Clark Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Both Button and Slumdog have snazzy flashback structures (so do Milk and Frost, come to think). But Slumdog’s is flashier, so it’ll win here.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: The Dark Knight
Nick Schager Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: The Dark Knight
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: NO CONSENSUS!
BEST MAKEUP
And the nominees are...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Greg Cannom
The Dark Knight – John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz
Paul Clark Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hellboy’s prosthetic work is far more ambitious, but Button will dominate among those who can’t distinguish between the film’s CGI work and its traditional makeup effects.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Old baby = Oscar!
Nick Schager, Sarah Clyne Sundberg & Scott Von Doviak Predict: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
BEST SOUND EDITING
And the nominees are...
The Dark Knight – Richard King
Iron Man – Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
Slumdog Millionaire – Tom Sayers
Wall-E – Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
Wanted – Wylie Stateman
Paul Clark Predicts: Iron Man
This category often goes to something that doesn’t have a lot of other Oscar love (remember when they gave one to The Ghost and the Darkness?). And I just can’t bring myself to vote for Wanted.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: The Dark Knight
Nick Schager: Slumdog Millionaire
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: The Dark Knight
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THE DARK KNIGHT
BEST SOUND MIXING
And the nominees are...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
The Dark Knight – Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick
Slumdog Millionaire – Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
Wall-E – Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
Wanted – Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt
Paul Clark Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Knight and Wanted should split the “crash-bang-boom” vote, Wall-E’s visual wonders may (sadly) overwhelm the aural ones, and Slumdog could be too small to prevail here. That leaves Button, a movie the voters clearly like, and which could end up cleaning up the tech categories.
Andrew Osborne, Nick Schager & Scott Von Doviak Predict: The Dark Knight
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THE DARK KNIGHT
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
And the nominees are...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
The Dark Knight – Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber, Paul Franklin
Iron Man – John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick, Shane Mahan
Paul Clark Predicts: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
See Best Makeup.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: The Dark Knight
Well, now, this one’s a real toss-up, but I suspect the Academy considers The Dark Knight more of a special effects movie...because, y’know, Benjamin Button’s all about acting.
Nick Schager and Scott Von Doviak Predict: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE JEAN HERSHOLT HUMANITARIAN AWARD
And the nominee is...
Jerry Lewis
Paul Clark Predicts: Jerry Lewis
Jerry Lewis will win the Humanitarian Award. And you can take that to the bank.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: Jerry Lewis
I’m hoping we finally get some clips from The Day The Clown Cried.
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: JERRY LEWIS
Stay tuned for Mickey Rourke's potato face, Darren Aronofsky's peculiar moustache, Sean Penn's disapproving grimace and Frank Langella's sweet, sweet bumcakes as the Screengrab 2009 Oscar Special continues!
Contributors: Paul Clark, Andrew Osborne, Leonard Pierce, Nick Schager, Sarah Clyne Sundberg, Scott Von Doviak