BEST PICTURE
And the nominees are...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Cean Chaffin
Frost/Nixon - Ron Howard, Brian Grazer, Eric Fellner
Milk - Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen
The Reader - Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Redmond Morris,Donna Gigliotti
Slumdog Millionaire - Christian Colson
Paul Clark Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Last week, Roger Ebert began posting his picks for the Oscars -- not his predictions, but rather the nominees he was rooting for to win. The reasoning behind these picks had less to do with quality than with a concept he called “Elevation” -- in other words, the nominees which gave him the strongest (positive) emotional charge. Personally, I think ol’ Rog might be on to something. After all, while critical types often prefer to scrutinize the technical prowess of the films and performances, I think most Academy members -- most of whom are actors -- tend to be somewhat more sentimental. They don’t necessarily choose the “best”, but instead vote in the way that makes them feel best. So that’s how I’ve predicted the major categories this time out -- by asking the question of what the warm-fuzzy choice might be, regardless of quality. For Best Picture, I’m not all that jazzed about any of the nominees, but aside from The Reader, Slumdog's probably my least favorite. But what I think doesn’t matter here: Slumdog Millionaire is this year’s Little Movie That Could, and none of the other movies has anything going for it quite as strong as this upstart factor. Hell, the Screen Actors Guild gave Slumdog’s cast Best Ensemble -- a cast headed by a pair of romantic leads who possessed roughly 3 ½ facial expressions between them. In short, Hollywood likes this movie a lot, and if anything else wins in this category it’ll be a hell of a surprise.
Andrew Osborne Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
I’m hoping the Benjamin Button backlash I started has now grown to a typhoon of scorn that will capsize the film's chances in this race. (And Jon Stewart was making fun of the movie last night during his interview with Dev Patel, which I’m gonna go ahead and take as a good sign). I realize Button might still win (or, God forbid, The Reader), either of which would be almost but not quite as ridiculous as the Crash upset in 2005. I’m rooting for Milk, but I suspect all the closeted old Academy homophobes won’t let that happen (see: Crash). Frost/Nixon is too much like an HBO movie to score, which leaves the buzzy Slumdog as the Great Indian Hope...and, in the wake of the Obama warm fuzzies global hug initiative, an international production would be a sensible, topical Best Picture winner.
Leonard Pierce Predicts: Frost/Nixon
In a more or less weak year, there are a lot of flaws in each of the Best Picture nominees. Benjamin Button is bloated and familiar, and The Reader simply isn’t a good film, which leaves Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and Frost/Nixon to battle for the gold. Slumdog Millionaire, for all its hype, may be a bit too odd for voter’s tastes; I’m predicting they’ll go for Frost/Nixon, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go either way.
Should Win: Milk
Will Win: Frost/Nixon
Nick Schager Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
Out of this relatively weak lot, the flawed but piercing, sumptuous Benjamin Button should come out on top. But as the only nominee that has both critical and commercial support, Slumdog will win the big one in a cakewalk.
Sarah Clyne Sundberg Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
It would seem too bold somehow, to give this award to Danny Boyle, a relative upstart. Not that Trainspotting is to be sneezed at. That said, I can just picture the cast and crew on their way onto the stage, speeches about how they never thought they'd get this far etc. The more conventional pick would be Milk, me thinks. But I'll live a little and bet on Slumdog Millionaire.
Scott Von Doviak Predicts: Slumdog Millionaire
I guess the Slumdog backlash is in effect (and I'm a willing participant myself), but it seems like Benjamin Button never even had a frontlash, and the other ones…what else is nominated again?
SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
So there you have it...your 2009 Screengrab Oscar Predictions! Again, to play along at home, just post your picks in the Comments section below...and also check below for your souvenir Academy Awards Ballot, annotated with our individual and consensus picks, guaranteed to make you the envy of your office Oscar pool!
Click Here For Part One, Two, Three, Four, Five & Six
Contributors: Paul Clark, Andrew Osborne, Leonard Pierce, Nick Schager, Sarah Clyne Sundberg, Scott Von Doviak
SCREENGRAB 2009 OSCAR BALLOT
KEY:
Items in BOLD are the Screengrab Consensus Picks
Individual picks are designated as follows:
Paul Clark: PC
Andrew Osborne: AO
Leonard Pierce: LP
Nick Schager: NS
Sarah Clyne Sundberg: SCS
Scott Von Doviak: SVD
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Cean Chaffin
Frost/Nixon - Ron Howard, Brian Grazer, Eric Fellner (LP)
Milk - Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen
The Reader - Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Redmond Morris,Donna Gigliotti
Slumdog Millionaire - Christian Colson (PC, AO, NS, SCS, SVD)
Best Director
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire (PC, NS, SCS, SVD)
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (AO)
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon (LP, SCS)
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk (AO, SCS)
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler (PC, LP, NS, SVD)
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – Changeling (LP)
Melissa Leo – Frozen River (SCS)
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – The Reader (PC, AO, NS, SVD)
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight (Everyone)
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penélope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona (SVD)
Viola Davis – Doubt (PC, AO, NS, SCS)
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler (LP)
Best Original Screenplay
WALL-E - Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
Happy-Go-Lucky - Mike Leigh
Frozen River - Courtney Hunt
In Bruges - Martin McDonagh (LP, SCS)
Milk - Dustin Lance Black (PC, AO, NS, SVD)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth and Robin Swicord (AO)
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
The Reader - David Hare (SCS)
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy (PC, LP, NS, SVD)
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
Best Animated Feature
Bolt – Chris Williams and Byron Howard
Kung Fu Panda – Mark Osborne and John Stevenson
WALL-E – Andrew Stanton (Everybody)
Best Foreign Language Film
Revanche (Austria) in German - Götz Spielmann The Class (France) in French - Laurent Cantet (AO)
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany) in German
Departures (Japan) in Japanese
Waltz with Bashir (Israel) in Hebrew - Ari Folman (PC, LP, NS, SCS, SVD)
Best Animated Short
La Maison En Petits Cubes - Kunio Kato (NS)
Lavatory - Lovestory - Konstantin Bronzit
Oktapodi - Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand (AO)
Presto - Doug Sweetland (PC, SVD)
This Way Up - Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes
Best Art Direction
Changeling – James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo (Everyone)
The Dark Knight – Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess – Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road – Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt
Best Cinematography
Changeling – Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Claudio Miranda (AO, SVD)
The Dark Knight – Wally Pfister
The Reader – Chris Menges, Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire – Anthony Dod Mantle (PC, NS)
Best Costume Design
Australia – Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Jacqueline West (AO, NS, SVD)
The Duchess – Michael O'Connor (PC)
Milk – Danny Glicker (SCS)
Revolutionary Road – Albert Wolsky
Best Documentary Feature
Nerakhoon (The Betrayal)
Encounters at the End of the World (PC, LP)
The Garden
Man on Wire (AO, NS, SCS, SVD)
Trouble the Water
Best Documentary Short
The Conscience of Nhem En (SVD)
The Final Inch (AO, NS)
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306 (PC)
Best Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
The Dark Knight – Lee Smith (AO, SVD)
Frost/Nixon – Mike Hill, Daniel P. Hanley
Milk – Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire – Chris Dickens (PC, NS)
Best Live Action Short
On the Line (Auf der Strecke) (PC, SVD)
Manon On the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig (Grisen)
Toyland (Spielzeugland) (AO, NS)
Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Greg Cannom (Everyone)
The Dark Knight – John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz
Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Alexandre Desplat (AO)
Defiance – James Newton Howard
Milk – Danny Elfman (SVD)
Slumdog Millionaire – A.R. Rahman (NS, SCS)
WALL-E – Thomas Newman (PC)
Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E – Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics) (AO, SVD)
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics) (PC, NS)
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.
Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight – Richard King (AO, SVD)
Iron Man – Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes (PC)
Slumdog Millionaire – Tom Sayers (NS)
WALL-E – Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
Wanted – Wylie Stateman
Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten (PC)
The Dark Knight – Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick (AO, NS, SVD)
Slumdog Millionaire – Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
WALL-E – Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
Wanted – Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt
Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron (PC, NS, SVD)
The Dark Knight – Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber, Paul Franklin (AO)
Iron Man – John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick, Shane Mahan
Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award
Jerry Lewis